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Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York
Plenty of companies are reining in their rhetoric and in some cases action on issues such as sustainability and diversity. Over the past decade, many corporations have at least professed to take a more active role in social issues, under pressure from their customers and, more importantly, employees. After last year's Bud Light debacle, which was a real blow to its business, executives fear they'll be the next target of some anti-woke outcry. For the fourth quarter of 2020, 131 companies mentioned ESG, and 34 mentioned DEI or diversity and inclusion. This may be a great un-wokening, but maybe corporate America was actually never that committed to the idea in the first place.
Persons: Paul Polman, It's, Naomi Wheeless, Eventbrite, Donald Trump, Larry Fink, George Floyd's, ESG, Andrew Jones, there's, Bud Light, influencer Dylan Mulvaney, haven't, Philip Mirvis, Bud, they'll, they'd, Jones, it's, Fink, FactSet, — we're, wasn't, Alison Taylor, University's, we've, Roe, Wade, Taylor, isn't, Dylan Mulvaney, Bud Light's, Kenneth Pucker, Emily Stewart Organizations: Unilever, Unilever wasn't, Unilever isn't, Companies, Business, Sporting Goods, Conference Board's ESG, Morningstar, Babson, AIG, Amazon, ExxonMobil, University's Stern School of Business, Anheuser, Busch, Fletcher School, Tufts University Locations: Plenty, America, ESG, New, Charlottesville
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Here's a scouting report covering a few relevant themes at play heading into the second quarter. The tenacious tape The behavior of the market itself is perhaps the strongest selling point for a bullish outlook from here. After the S & P has returned 10% or more in a first quarter? The index continued higher the following quarter nine of those 11 and was up the remainder of the year all but once. All but one of the previous episodes saw the market higher nine months later, which in this case would take it through 2024.
Persons: It's, YTD, we've, it's, , Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Organizations: Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Eaton Corp
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.
Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko
By underweighting the experience of certain groups — especially lower-income or frontline workers — policymakers could learn the wrong lessons from the post-pandemic economy. The Great DivergenceIf you ask Americans how the economy is doing, the general sentiment can be summed up in one word: bad. Similarly, the Conference Board's consumer confidence data isn't quite at its post-Great Recession lows, but it's far below its 2017-19 average. The ASEC data uses a very large sample to provide the best possible insight into households' economic well-being, with more than 75,000 households participating. Similarly, the focus on the prospect of a recession soared, even outdoing the period in 2020 when the economy was actually in a recession.
Persons: it's, , Pew Organizations: University of, Conference, Labor Statistics, Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NFL, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, BLS, Census, Federal Locations: telemarketers, nonresponses
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since April 2020. It marks the first time since July 2022 that the gauge is not signaling a recession ahead. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index– a gauge of future economic activity — dropped 0.4% to 102.7 in January, signaling the lowest level since April 2020 when the US economy was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic-spurred lockdowns. "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," the Conference Board's Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said on Tuesday. As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead."
Persons: , LEI, Monica, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementMeanwhile, on Monday, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande, the world's most indebted real estate developer. "I expect that the Chinese market will bounce around, but that the bias is towards more pain since the problems are systemic in my opinion," Laffer Jr. said. "The US on the other hand should do well for the 2024 period — strong economy, strong employment, strong earnings, strong dollar."
Persons: , That's, Arthur Laffer Jr, Laffer, Xi Jinping, Joseph Seydl, you've, Seydl, didn't, Alfredo Montufar, Helu, China Evergrande Organizations: Service, Real, Business, International Monetary Fund, Investments, JPMorgan Private Bank, Conference Board's China Center, CSI, Bloomberg Locations: China, US, Beijing, backtrack, deleverage, Hong Kong
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the St. John Baptist Church in Columbia, South Carolina, on Jan. 28, 2024. The White House cheered the Conference Board report on Tuesday showing consumer confidence rising to its highest level in more than two years. Consumer confidence reached its highest level since December 2021, and was up more than 30% since its April 2020 low of 85.7. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose for a third straight month to 114.8 in January, up from a revised 108 in December 2023. Despite the increasing consumer sentiment, just 33% of voters approve of Biden's handling of the economy, according to CNBC's All-America Economic Survey in December.
Persons: Joe Biden, Lael Brainard, Donald Trump, Biden's, Trump Organizations: St, John Baptist Church, Economic, Biden Administration, America Economic Survey, CNBC, Biden, Trump, CNBC PRO Locations: Columbia , South Carolina
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
"However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought." Here's the drop in wage growth Roberts mentions. At the moment, CEO confidence isn't great, Roberts pointed out, which could mean further trouble ahead for employment growth. AdvertisementA warning sign for stocksWhile it will take time for the labor market outlook to become clear, Roberts said stocks are already flashing signs of trouble. But that view became less popular in the second half of 2023 as the labor market proved resilient month after month amid Federal Reserve rate hikes, and inflation dropped to under 4%.
Persons: , Lance Roberts, Roberts, St, Louis Fed, it's Organizations: Service, RIA, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal Reserve
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
Here are 6 signals investment bankers are watching as they pray for an M&A rebound in 2024. By contrast, activity from private equity firms "was off almost 40%," he said. In 2021, private equity firms transacted $1.5 trillion across 2,869 deals, according to Dealogic. Last year, private equity M&A made up 40% of total activity, according to Goldman Sachs. AI companies, many of which are only now being formed, need to mature, and the winners and losers need to come into focus, bankers said.
Persons: Wall, LSEG, Goldman Sachs, Vito Sperduto, Sperduto, we've, Stephan Feldgoise, Hess, Anthony J, Carfang, Cash, Goldman, Goldman's Feldgoise, Feldgoise, Mark Sorrell, I'm, Harold M, Lambert, Jerome Powell, Greg McBride, McBride, Jonathan Gray, dealmaking, Gray, Rob Chisholm, Chisholm Organizations: Fed, London Stock Exchange, Business, RBC Capital Markets, Conference Board, Conference, Federal, Goldman, Federal Reserve, Private, Bankers, DOJ, FTC, Federal Reserve Board, Bankrate, of Labor Statistics, Cisco, LSEG, Qatalyst Partners, Citi, & $ Locations: LSEG, Ukraine
There's rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Inflation vs. the job marketContinued strength in the labor market is something economists expected to sweeten everyday Americans' views of the economy. While the Michigan index compiles questions focused on financial conditions and purchasing power, the Conference Board's more closely gauges one's feelings about the job market. A hot job market can be a double-edged sword for sentiment, Michigan's Hsu noted.
Persons: Scott Olson, Kyle Connolly, Connolly, she's, Joanne Hsu, we're, Hsu, That's, Camelia, Kuhnen, Michigan's Hsu, UNC's Kuhnen, Karen Dynan, Marissa Lyda, Lyda, She's, there's, There's, Harvard's, Dynan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque Organizations: Toyota, Facebook, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Conference, University of North, U.S . Treasury Department, Walmart, Federal, Committee Locations: Chicago , Illinois, Florida's panhandle, Michigan, University of North Carolina, Harvard, Phoenix, Portland, Kroger, Washington , U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe see a 'short & shallow' recession in the first half of 2024: The Conference Board's Dana PetersonDana Peterson, The Conference Board chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, health of the consumer, revised Q3 GDP data, and more.
Persons: Dana Peterson Dana Peterson Organizations: The Conference Board
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are feeling the uncertainty of the economy, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the interest rate outlook, consumer confidence, and more.
Persons: Steve Odland Steve Odland, Steve Liesman Organizations: Conference Board
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 20, 2023. The rebound in equities in November has brought the S&P 500 (.SPX) within a very close range of its 2023 intra-day high. Multiple policy voting members are scheduled to speak during the day, including Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. ET, Dow e-minis were up 14 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 16.25 points, or 0.1%. Boeing added 1.7% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the aerospace company to "outperform" from "sector perform" and set a street-high price target.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Governors Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Governors, Dow e, Hargreaves, Conference, Boeing, RBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Bengaluru
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